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Need an account? Click here to sign up. Download Free PDF. Related Papers. Dunaharaszti, Boldog vagyok, windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru csak egy fejem van! Te pedig igen. Budapest, Public Governance Quarterly, 2 A I am going to взято отсюда some general concepts on risk analysis and respective methodologies, and to point out why its use is required in the law enforcement sector.

Risk Definitions Several risk definitions exist including general and specific ones corresponding to the law enforcement approaches.

Instead of listing several definitions on an exhaustive manner I would rather conclude common elements of the risk concepts. Condition 1 Risk has to be a random event that may possibly occur. This also means its probability has to be more than zero independently from the fact, whether such event has ever been occurred. This also would have a windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru impact on the organisation, or prevent from achieving its goals, or this could undermine security somehow. David Vose, for instance, windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru if the random event occurs a positive impact this windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru be considered as an opportunity instead of risk.

Their tasks, assignments and the area of responsibility are continuously changing, very often increasing, but not as quick as their resources do. Let us see, for instance, the chart below. Windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru upper graph demonstrates the increasing criminality in the UK in a percentage of the value of the starting point. The lower graph, however; indicates how the law enforcement can follow this challenge by their capabilities.

It is clear that their flexibility is changing much slower with their resources than the demand requires. The so-called demand gap is between the two graphs area. This is the main challenge that the law enforcement agencies have to compensate somehow. The trend was also proven in the USA with similar results. Change in the UK police strenght and recorded crime since index year showing the demand gap in resource availability [Ratcliffe, ] Other researchers, such as Tim Newburn, have also analysed the crime trends and the expenditures that a state could spend on the police with the conclusion: crime trends were more dynamic than the increase of financing the police services.

Moreover based on survey results he also emphasised that the increasing gap between the two phenomena may undermine the public confidence in the law enforcement. With other words, we need to use the best methodologies when answering the challenges.

Methods The relationship between key terms of risk management has to be set before I can step forward. Risk management is composed of risk assessment, risk treatment, risk acceptance and risk communication. Risk assessment can be further divided into two parts. Risk analysis and risk evaluation. Risk analysis deals with identification of initiating event, cause and consequence analyses and risk description.

Risk treatment; however, contains risk avoidance, risk optimisation, risk transfer and risk retention. However it is not so complicated.

Figure 2: The main steps of risk analysis process [Terje, ] 1. The cyclic procedure always contain a planning phase; 2. It is followed by an analysis element, where the noisy crowd of data becomes consumable and understandable messages that are disseminated with the decision- makers; 4.

A central part of the process is the risk management phase, where we try to have an impact and reduce the problems arisen; 5. And there is also a Вами download powerpoint 2013 full crack пишете function, which is probably the most important from all of these, because it allows following the changes of the risk environment.

To the intelligence phase it вот ссылка windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru to add that usually risk perception plays a key role. This reflects on how we do realise that our achievements are endangered by risks, and what the nature of these risks are. Certainly these risks, which are preventing to achieve our objectives, are diverse. There are always several risks; and each of them pose different volume of threat, and if the risk scenario happens some of them cause slight damages, and others will do much more serious ones.

To demonstrate this I put here several risks labelled from A to J having indicated at each of them how much damage they can cause. Figure 3: Versatility of risks and the damages they can windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru [edited by the author] Not simply the risk consequences are the only dimensions reflecting the risks.

There is always a probability that indicates the chance if the scenario becomes true. Luckily the major and catastrophic events in a well composed system remain very rear. Figure 4: Consequences vs. For instance the number of injuries or fatalities can provide a scale to the consequences just as the countable value of money in terms of economic losses.

Probability may also be categorised and produced from the frequency of the events. Strategic dilemmas When we act as a responsible officer of the agency and our duty is to construct a risk management system it is almost sure that there will be facing several strategic dilemmas like these: 1. First of all what should we protect? His thought advises us that a system intending to protect everything simply will not work. At least it will not perform on a balanced manner.

The protective means should be windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru and efforts have to be focussed accordingly. We need to make some self-awareness as well! How much risk tolerance we have and how can we accept losses?

There are some approaches in the risk management we need to bear in mind. Windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru approach says that each risk requires different method to deal with. Targeting approach suggests concentrating most of our resources to the most serious problems.

Slicing the problems into smaller pieces would result to solve them step by step. If we deal with the problems still posing low risk we can spare lots of resources and can regroup them to the medium and higher risk sectors. The European Union has the successful Authorised Economic Operator programme35, and several countries have developed their own visa waiver programmes.

These can be examples concerning this concept, because they deal with a huge portion of low risk entities and therefore indirectly allow risk managers to focus elsewhere, where needed. This could be also labelled as an indirect approach. Law enforcement requires risk management systems on a longer term; therefore, the agencies have to find or develop their own business models that ensure a continuous monitoring of the risk environment and the capability to adapt to the changing conditions.

Time concept The time concept of a well-grounded risk management has always two sides. For indication purposes I put several measures typically following risk based approaches in problem solving in a time scale. The other is the reactive side when the measures focus on the elimination of the damages and the restoration of the damaged systems.

Therefore usually the measures are organised usually in a chain-like manner. At the first line of defence some parts of the risks are filtered out, while certain risks can penetrate the layer and go further to the next one. If we want to be effective in the use of our resources we have to be conscious how to structure the layers. For instance, the use of cheaper and less resource consuming layers can sort out a wide range of risk types, while more resource consuming and expensive measures can be directed precisely to a selected group of problems.

Therefore, it has a key relevance how the layers are composed; on the one hand how to spare resources, on the other to prevent any possible event узнать больше здесь lead to an all layers penetrating and catastrophic result. I have also indicated each of them how much damage these could occur. I followed the Italian scientist, Vilfredo Pareto, and ranked the risks according to the size of the damages.

I have also indicated by the green line how much cumulated percentage of the problems could be solved if we started from the left, the risks representing the more serious problems and going to the lesser serious ones to the right. Figure 7: Pareto chart on the damages occurred by single risks [edited by the author] In the forthcoming chart see Windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru 7 the problems, which are indicated by the blue columns, do not represent their each value, but in a percent of the total problems all risk types cause.

These are the high risks, on which the previously mentioned targeting approach should motivate us to focus more resources. M Figure 8: Pareto chart on the damages occurred by single risks supplemented with indication of risk categories [edited by the author] If we intend to http://replace.me/15965.txt the risks into three categories, we can indicate for example, a high, a medium and a low risk segment.

Certainly, fewer or more categories can be set according to objective considerations. The sensitivity of the risk management systems may be tailored according to the risk categories, as well as to the methods used in order to deal with the problems.

Selectivity in dealing with the individual risks and targeting the resources are obligatory moments of a successful risk management process. Targeting resources; however, could mean either the concentration of additional efforts on the high risk problems, or saving resources by tailor made measures from the medium and low risk areas, or even both.

From the concept of targeting resources people often associate the measures dealing with high risk focus, but rarely the low risk segment. Low risk management programmes can ensure the masses of people and companies representing the compliance culture. It has just as high relevance, if not even more, than the extreme violators deserve. As the law enforcement capacities increase much slower than the requirements posed by the criminal challenges the decision makers often rely on the resources available and cannot expect additional ones.

Development of more effective risk based means and measures and regroup of the available resources seem to be the only way forward. Conclusions Sending messages concerning the ideas of risk management to the law enforcement community has proven windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru necessary although the sector has been using risk based considerations on a wider scale.

The Hungarian University does not stand alone from this aspect, because others are considering to follow жмите. This article intended to emphasise the main ideas of risk analysis and management instead of going into details with a certain single and practical solution used by windows 10 1703 download iso itar tass.ru law enforcement organisation.

 
 

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